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Translated Title

Assessment of Natural Unemployment Rate in Slovenia

Please Note:

This article is in Slovenian.

Ključne besede

naravna stopnja brezposelnosti, NAIRU, Philipsova krivulja, Kalmanov filter, Slovenija

Keywords

natural unemployment rate, NAIRU, Philips curve, Kalman filter, Slovenia

Povzetek

V članku ocenjujemo gibanje naravne stopnje brezposelnosti v Sloveniji po letu 1997, in sicer kot stopnjo brezposelnosti, ki ne pospešuje inflacije (SBNPI). Ocene na podlagi metode Kalmanovega filtra kažejo na stabilno upadanje SBNPI od leta 1997 do konca leta 2004, ko je bila zaznana najnižja SBNPI v proučevanem obdobju, in sicer nekje med 4,5 in 5,1%. Po letu 2005 je prišlo do postopnega naraščanja SBNPI, ki pa se je ustavilo konec leta 2007. Od drugega četrtletja leta 2007 je bila dejanska stopnja brezposelnosti vsaj za 1 odstotno točko nižja od ocenjene SBNPI, kar nakazuje, da bi pregrevanje gospodarstva lahko bilo dejavnik naraščajoče inflacije v tem obdobju.

Abstract

In this article, we estimate the movement of natural rate of unemployment in Slovenia since 1997, as the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). The estimates based on the Kalman filter method indicate a stable decline in the NAIRU from 1997 to the end of 2004, when the lowest NAIRU was detected during the period studied, somewhere between 4.5 and 5.1%. After 2005, a gradual increase in the NAIRU occurred, which came to a halt at the end of 2007. Since the second quarter of 2007, the actual unemployment rate has been at least 1 percentage point lower than the estimated NAIRU, which indicates that the overheating of the economy could be a factor contributing to the rising inflation during this period.

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