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Translated Title

Estimating GDP per Capita in the Long Run: Evidence from Slovenia, 1820-2016

Please Note:

This article is in Slovenian.

Rok Spruk

Ključne besede

BDP per capita, dolgoročna gospodarska rast, Slovenija

Keywords

GDP per capita, long-run economic growth, Slovenia

Povzetek

V tem članku ocenim realni BDP per capita Slovenije med leti 1820 in 2016 z uporabo indirektne metode ter sintezo obstoječih sektorskih računov in indeksov. Rezultati potrdijo vzorec počasne industrializacije do leta 1913, stacionarno rast v medvojnem obdobju, zaton v času druge svetovne vojne in komunističnega nasilja, hitro industrializacijo po letu 1952, globok padec v obdobju 1986-1992 ter hitro rast v post-osamosvojitvenem obdobju. Ocene pokažejo, da je Slovenija v osemdesetih leti dohitela raven BDP per capita Avstrije in Zahodne Nemčije in do danes tega nivoja še ni dosegla. V povojnem obdobju je Slovenija do danes dosegla višji BDP per capita od višegrajskih držav in južne Evrope.

Abstract

In this paper, I estimate the real GDP per capita of Slovenia for the period 1820-2016 using the indirect method based on existing national accounts and proxy variables. The results confirm the pattern of slow industrialization until 1913, stationary growth dynamics in the interwar period and during the civil war, rapid industrialization after 1952, a steep decline in the period 1986-1992 and a rapid growth in the independence era. The estimates suggest that Slovenia achieved a short-lived per capita income parity with Austria and West Germany in early 1980s which still has not been recovered down to the present day. In the post-WW2 era, Slovenia sustained higher per capita GDP than Vishegrad country group and Mediterranean countries in Southern Europe.

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