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Translated Title

Dynamic Tourism Sector: Overview and Future Prospects

Please Note:

This article is in Slovenian.

Ključne besede

vstop in izstop podjetij, turizem, Slovenija

Keywords

firms entries and exits dynamics, tourism, Slovenia

Povzetek

Vstop novih podjetij v panogo pomembno vpliva na ustvarjanje novih procesov, proizvodov in trgov ter neposredno na produktivnost podjetij. Prispevek se tako osredotoča na dinamiko vstopa in izstopa v turistični panogi v obdobju od leta 2006 do leta 2018 in posebej primerja stopnje vstopa in izstopa v posameznem podsektorju turistične panoge. V primerjavi z drugimi sektorji gospodarstva je bila panoga precej bolj dinamična tako glede stopenj vstopa kot tudi stopenj izstopa. V času epidemije covida-19 ter po njej, ko se je zmanjšalo povpraševanje po turističnih storitvah, lahko pričakujemo manjši vstop novih podjetij in povečan izstop, predvsem glede na to, da napovedi kažejo, da bo prav turistična dejavnost med najbolj prizadetimi panogami v času epidemije covid-19. Izmed podsektorjev je bila najbolj dinamična dejavnost gostinstvo, sledi pa ji nastanitvena dejavnost, predvsem v predkriznem letu 2007, po krizi pa je bila zelo dinamična tudi panoga športnih in drugih dejavnosti. Preproste napovedi za prihodnost tudi napovedujejo, da bo med najbolj dinamičnimi ostalo gostinstvo, kar pomeni, da bo število izstopov podjetij iz te panoge v času epidemije covid-19 in po njej razmeroma visoko.

Abstract

This article focuses on the dynamics of entries and exits in the tourism industry from 2006 to 2018. More specifically, it compares the entry and exit rates in each subsector of the tourism industry. Compared to other sectors of the economy, the tourism industry was much more dynamic in terms of both entry and exit rates. During and after the COVID-19 crisis, when the demand for tourism services decreased, we can expect lower entry rates of new firms and on the other hand increased exit rates. Among the sub-sectors, the most dynamic activity was observed for food and beverage service activities, followed by accommodation, especially in the pre-crisis year 2007. In the period after the post Great Recession period, more dynamism was observed in sports activities and amusement and recreation activities. Simple forecasts for the future also predict that the hospitality industry will remain among the most dynamic, which unfortunately in the COVID-19 crisis means that the number of businesses leaving this industry is predicted to be quite high.

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